March Madness Round 1’s Roundup

March 19, 2017


Climate Leadership School Tracking Board (March 18, 12:15 pm)

First Round Win Rate (Climate Leaders)

First Round Win Rate (non-Climate Leaders)

CL Win Rate vs Non-CL’s

Win Rate in Close Games (+/- 3 ranks)

NCAA’s Carbon Footprint Responsibility

53.1% (17/32)

46.9% (15/32)

65% (13/20)


1,116 mtCO2e (including First Four)

So, how’d we do on those Friday predictions? Let’s take a look:

  • Games where CL’s play non-CL’s; 13 games @ 60% win rate
    • Prediction: 7 to 8 CL schools advance.
    • Result: 7 CL schools advance. (prediction revised to 54%, though)
      • Seton Hall v Arkansas
      • Jacksonville State v Louisville
      • TX Southern v UNC
      • UC Davis v Kansas
      • Troy v Duke
      • Michigan State v Miami
      • Kent State v UCLA
      • NM State v Baylor
      • Iona v Oregon
      • Wichita State v Dayton
      • Kansas State v Cincinnati
      • Marquette v South Carolina
      • Northern Kentucky v Kentucky
  • Overall advancement of CL schools into the 2nd round = 9 more teams from CL schools will be in the second round by midnight pacific.
    • Prediction: 67% of CL teams playing on Friday should advance to the second round on Friday. That’s about 9 more CL schools.
    • Result: Unfortunately, 2 of the remaining 3 games matched non-CL schools against other non-CL’s, while the third game pitted CL v CL. A total of 8 teams from CL schools advanced on Friday resulting in a 56% win rate on Friday and lowering overall CL daily success rate projection to 62%.
      • Rhode Island beats Creighton (both CL’s)
      • USC beats SMU (both non-CL’s)
      • Michigan beats Oklahoma State (both non-CL’s)
  • What about the close games? Well, there were 4 of those: Arkansas-Seton Hall, Michigan State-Miami, Marquette-South Carolina, Dayton-Wichita State. Did the perfect record of CL’s winning against non-CL’s on Thursday survive the night? Let’s find out.
    • Prediction: 100% of close games pitting non-CLs against CLs will be won by the team from the Climate Leadership school.
    • Result: Not even close! Arkansas handed Seton Hall a clear defeat, but the remaining games ended up on the wrong side for CL’s. 25% win rate on Friday lowers overall close games with CL schools to 50%.
      • Arkansas beat Seton Hall
      • Michigan State beat Miami
      • South Carolina beat Marquette
      • Wichita State beat Dayton (great game!)

The second round starts today and matches are on the docket. CL schools are in 5 of the 6 games. Two games pit CL v CL, so we’ll see a thinning of the ranks in either Wisconsin – Villanova and Saint Mary’s – Arizona. I picked these matchups in my own bracket and see Villanova and Arizona moving forward. Moving our predictions forward, I expect to see:

  1. 54% for CL’s beating non-CL schools: This includes two matches, Xavier-Florida State and Butler-Middle Tenn, both of which the CL school is heavily favored to move forward.
  2. 62% for overall movement of CL’s in this round. Best case scenario has 5 CL’s moving forward. Worst case has 2 (from the CL v CL matches). Prediction calls for 3 wins today. I think we’ll have 5…
  3. Close matches aren’t on the docket today.

Check out the tournaments growing flight and emissions footprint. It’s updated daily and currently shows Rhode Island atop the list by accumulating 36 tons of CO2 emissions travelling in the first round of NCAA’s Men’s Basketball Tournament.

I’ll start looking at each team’s emissions accumulated in the first round for the advancing schools by Region and by CL vs non-CL status. Let us know your predictions @Urban_Offsets.