March Madness Round 2’s Roundup
March 22, 2017
Saturday was definitely better for Climate Leadership schools than Sunday was. Let’s look at both days in the context of Round 2:
- Games where CL’s play non-CL’s; 6 games @ 54% Round 1 win rate
- Prediction: 3 CL schools advance to the Regional Finals.
- Result: 4 on saturday + 0 on sunday = 4 CL schools advance revising the CL vs non-CL Round 2 win rate @ 67% based on 6 games played last weekend
- Xavier, Gonzaga, Butler, & Florida were the winners.
- CL schools won 62% of their games, regardless of opponent type (CL or not), in the first round. CL’s played 11 games on the weekend. If Round 1 tells us anything, we should have expected to see 7 teams advance to the Regional Finals. How did that play out?
- Prediction: 7 CL schools advance out of 11 matches.
- Result: The only reason CL’s made the grade in Round 2 is that 5 of the 11 games were played against CL schools, guaranteeing 5 advancing schools. Luckily, with 4 more wins on Saturday, we see 9 total CL schools advance to the Regional Finals. I’m bringing the win rate against non-CL’s here to cover overall wins to be fair. (66%)
Looking at our bracket, how many CL’s are left and who are they?
- Nine (9) Climate Leadership schools remain in the tournament: Wisconsin, Florida, Gonzaga, Xavier, Arizona, UCLA, Butler, UNC, and Oregon.
- Seven (7) Regular schools remain: Baylor, South Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky, Michigan, Purdue, and Kansas.
FiveThirtyEight gives Gonzaga the the top chance to win the Championship at 18%, followed closely by the non-CL school, Kentucky at 15%.
The South and West regions have advanced the highest number of CL schools at 3 a piece. Two (2) have made it this far in the East (and their playing each other on Friday). Only Oregon moved to the Regional Finals from the Midwest.
|# of CL’s entering the tournament||7||6||8||8|
|# of CL’s entering Round 2||4 (57%)||4 (67%)||3 (38%)||5 (63%)|
|# of CL’s entering Regional Finals (Cumulative % through Round 1)||2 (29%)||3 (50%)||1 (12.5%)||3 (38%)|
The table above tells us that CL schools from the South and West Regions fared much better than those in the East and Midwest.
At this point, we seem to be just above even odds to win the championship. Of course, this will all change in 48 hours. I’ll round up the Sweet Sixteen on the 25th. In the meantime, check out our March Madness analytics hub where you can follow along with the mileage flown for each team to reach their games.